Quarterly percent change in real gross domestic product (annualized rate)
Previous Quarter
...
Year-over-Year
...Compared to year ago
Forecast Q2 2024
2.0-2.5%Consensus forecast
Economic Growth Trends
1Y
5Y
10Y
MAX
Historical Data
Quarter
Growth Rate
Change
Status
Overview
The GDP Growth Rate measures the percentage change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from one period to another, adjusted for inflation. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and a key indicator of economic health.
Components of GDP Growth
Consumer Spending: Personal consumption expenditures, which account for about 70% of GDP, continue to be the main driver of economic growth. Consumer resilience has been supported by a strong labor market and gradually moderating inflation.Business Investment: Non-residential fixed investment has shown modest growth, with spending on equipment and intellectual property products outpacing structures investment, which has been more volatile.Government Spending: Government consumption expenditures and gross investment have contributed positively to recent GDP growth, with increases at both federal and state/local levels.Net Exports: The trade balance has been fluctuating, with recent quarters showing mixed contributions to overall GDP growth as global demand shifts and the relative strength of the dollar impacts trade flows.
Outlook
Economic forecasts suggest moderate growth in the range of 2.0-2.5% for the upcoming quarters, with consumer spending expected to remain the main driver despite the dampening effects of high interest rates. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding the timing and pace of interest rate adjustments, will significantly influence the growth trajectory.Key risks to the outlook include geopolitical tensions, potential energy price volatility, and the lagged effects of monetary tightening on business investment and consumer spending. Additionally, labor market conditions and their effect on wage growth and consumption will be critical factors to monitor.